Monday, 26 September 2011

Champions League on Tuesday

Champions League second round starts on Tuesday with plenty of interesting and entertaining games. 
I'll have a look at couple of them and make some notes which might be useful to you, but probably will take just one bet. Rest of the matches are for watching with nice cold pint.

27/09/2011 Manchester United - Basel
High flying Manchester team lost first points in Premierleague against Stoke. Last week's Champions League game against Benfica produced only a draw. But on the other hand Benfica is very strong team, so maybe one point away is not so bad result.
I watched game against Stoke with one eye, and probably it was one of the worst games I've seen this season for United. I would suggest once more that Man United with Rooney and without him are two different teams. Bad news for tomorrow - Rooney won't be playing again. Hernandez is also out, together with Evans, Smalling, Cleverley, Vidic and Rafael. 
Basel's five match wining streak ended in Thun on Saturday with a draw 1-1.
Xherdan Shaqiri and Benjamin Huggel are suspended (both played all match against Thun), and Valentin Stocker, Gilles Yapi and Genséric Kusunga are all injured, yet Scott Chipperfield is available after recovering from a torn muscle that ruled him out of the start of the season. 
Swiss champions are coming to England being top of the group after beating Otelul 2-1. By the reports it was boring game between two bad teams. I can't confirm that, but would agree it is big difference between Man United and Basel and bookies set asian handicap at -1.75 and it's too big for my liking.
If you will be watching game I would suggest to take Man United at -1.5 if goal is not scored within first 15-20 minutes.
Teams already met once in Champions League in 2003, match at Old Trafford finished 1-1.

Another interesting match will be played in Romania.
27/09/2011 Otelul - Benfica
Romanian side are in quite poor form lately. Last weekend they couldn't beat  newly promoted Mioveni team at home, game finished as scoreless draw. In local league Otelul have only 3 wins after 8 games and are only 9th.
Another negative for home side - the game will played in huge Bucharest stadium (few hundred kilometers away from Galati) and most likely will be half full, mostly with neutral romanians.
Benfica is one of the teams I really fancy and expect to go till quarterfinals at least. Watched them against Twente and Trabzonspor and they were brilliant.
Draw against Man United (shots on target 7 against 2) and draw away in Porto 2-2 extended their unbeaten run to 11 games.
If the game would be played in Lisboa I would take them with no doubts with -1.5AH. But Benfica is not so good on their travels - in qualifying rounds they drawn both games away. But on the other hand they had opportunity to achieve required result at home. Now is group phase and every point is vital for quick access to second phase as soon as possible. 
Bookies know that and odds are really fair and too low for taking. My choice - wait 15-20 minutes and see how the game flows. I would take small bet on Benfica once I can get 1.85 or more.

And finally the game I will be watching:
27/09/2011 Bayern - Man City
Probably main match on Tuesday. Germans with huge experience in Champions League and english team with plenty of talent.
Bayern claimed their ninth successive win in all competitions on Saturday against Bayern Leverkusen 3-0.
Coach Heynckes confirmed that Boateng, who joined Bayern from City this summer, would start on Tuesday. Arjen Robben, Mario Gomez, Daniel Van Buyten and Luiz Gustavo - all returned to action against Leverkusen. Ivica Olić  and Breno remain sidelined, though, and Holger Badstuber is a doubt with flu.
Manchester City can't compare to Munich side on experience level in such matches, but with all players they have win for germans is not on the cards in my opinion.
Aguero and Dzeko are scoring for fun. Tevez still waiting for his chance and even Balotelli scored in win against Everton few days ago (though he won't play because of suspension).
With all striking force from both teams I expect at least one goal from each team and will take both teams to score as my main bet today.
Pinnacle are offering massive 4.11 for Manchester City to win, which represents value.

7 units - both teams to score@1.73 bet365

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Bayern 2-0 Man City. Pick is lost (-7 units)

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