Will Newcastle stay unbeaten?

Couple of weeks without English football flew past and now let's go back to action. We have few interesting games, but after the break I'll just have two small bets, even Norwich - Arsenal overs looks very attractive.

19/11/2011 Manchester City - Newcastle

Despite reporting an annual loss of £194.9m for 2010-11, the biggest in English football history, City are still top of the league, leading by 5 points.

But today I decided to go against them. Of course they still have great squad, with only Nasri being sidelined. Aguero should be fit to play - his injury wasn't so bad as expected.

But 16 of City's stars were away for international duty. Edin Dzeko and Stefan Savic had Euro 2012 play-off heartache. Sergio Aguero and Pablo Zabaleta were involved in South American World Cup qualifiers. Aleksandar Kolorov was sent off playing for Serbia in a friendly in Mexico! The Toure brothers had a to go to South Africa for another friendly and after playing at Wembley, David Silva had 11,000 miles of flying to Costa Rica and back! Those journeys should have impact on their form.

Newcastle are surprise package of the season so far and they are undefeated in 10 games (the only team with Man City in the league). Also they have the best defence in the league, conceded only 8 goals.

Probably Man City is more likely to win, but I think it will be by one goal only. Or even draw is not out of the question. Today I'll go with visitors on +1.5AH. Odds are really good.

5 units - Newcastle +1.5@2.12 Ladbrokes

Birmingham City - Peterborough

One league down to Championship, to St Andrews - fortress of Birmingham City. 

Once again I'm going with Brummies. 13th position after 13 games, but with 3 games in hand. 3 wins would take them straight to 3rd position.

They really needed a break after tough schedule with Europa League games, english cups and championship matches being played every 2-3 days. After 7 wins in a row, followed 3 matches without a win.

They a still unbeaten at home - 4 wins and 2 draws, scored 8, conceded only 1. Five clean sheets!

Peterborough have one record, no one wants to achieve - they haven't kept a single clean sheet in 16 matches so far. Away record 2-1-5, 11:15. They are coming to Birmingham after 2 losses away in a row to Watford and Southampton. Doesn't look like St Andrews is the right place at the moment to change this sequence.

5 units - Birmingham City@1.86 pinnacle

Good Luck!


EDIT: FT Man City 3-1 Newcastle. Pick is lost (-5 units)
FT Birmingham City 1-1 Peterborough. Pick is lost (-5 units)

Let goals fly in Lisboa

Last time I said, I should leave European football alone, but can't resist one pick. Odds too good to miss - at least I think so now. We'll see tomorrow who was right.

15/11/2011 Portugal - Bosnia

All or nothing - that's the price of this game. Either you are going to Euro2012 or you'll be sitting by TV and watching others play and win trophies.

First match was coutious game, finished 0-0 and not so many chances were created.

Now is return leg and teams have to play, don't think any of them will be happy with 0-0 and extratime or even penalties.

Portuguese side scored in 7 from 8 group matches, at home they scored 13 in 4 games, Ronaldo (5 goals) and Nani (4 goals) being topscorers. Worth to mention, they kept only one clean sheet at home and conceded 8 goals against Cyprus, Denmark and Iceland

Bosnians have historic chance and with 17 goals scored in 10 group matches they are dangerous team. They scored in 8 from 10 group matches. With Edin Dzeko (4 goals), Ibisevic and Pjanic they have players able to score.

Last game in group away in France showed that they are capable of playing and scoring against top european teams and I expect good performance from them tonight.

Odds rised for both teams to score from 2.20 to 2.40 and I will take it with small stakes.

5 units - both teams to score@2.40 bwin

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Portugal 6-2 Bosnia. Pick is won (+7 units)

Lithuanians are in trouble

I decided to take small bet on Slovenia U21, who will challenge Lithuanian team in few hours. Game will be played in Nova Gorica (Slovenia).

11/10/2011 Slovenia U21 - Lithuania U21

I don't know a lot about Slovenian team. First mutual match they won in Lithuania 1-0. After that they won another two games and with 10 points after 5 games are joint first with Sweden, who played only 4 matches. So Slovenians have all the chances to fight for the first position in group.

I know much more about Lithuanian team, who are not the strongest anyway, and today they will miss 7 players from last match, when they finally grabbed first 3 points beating Malta 2-0. Before that they lost 4 matches in a row. 

Missings are important in my opinion, and biggest problems should occure in defence. For this match one 16 years old defender is invited - I never heard about him, even I follow Lithuanian football very close - most likely it's just encouragement for the youngster, coz by no means he is a star at the moment.

Lithuanian football season have finished last week, and most of the players invited were sitting on the bench in their teams, rather than playing. One player worth mentioning is Novikovas from Hearts, but he was injured for the last couple weeks, so his form is not perfect.

I have to give edge for the home team, and expect them to cover handicap. Small sake.

5 units - Slovenia U21 -1.5@1.91 188bet

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Slovenia U21 2-0 Lithuania U21. Pick is won (+4.55 units)

Tottenham and Bolton - my selection for Sunday

06/11/2011 Fulham - Tottenham

Both teams played in midweek in Europa League, Fulham at home beat Wisla 4-1  and Spurs lost away in Russia against Rubin 1-0. The difference between both teams - Fulham fielded main players, Spurs left main players at home, who even didn't travel to Russia.

Fulham surprised me a little bit this season. Usually they are strong mid table team and you can trust them when they are playing at home. But this season they managed just one win from 5 games at Craven Cottage.

Also Fulham have only won two of their last 22 London derbies, one of them came in their most recent attempt at Craven Cottage when they beat QPR 6-0.

Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last seven league matches. Van der Vaart and Adebayor are in great form.
Having lost their opening two league matches, Spurs have won six and drawn one of their last seven, a run that started when Scott Parker made his debut for the club.
Away from home Spurs are 3-1-1 and I don't expect them to lose points today, but will go with safer option.


8 units - Tottenham -0.25@2.05 Victor Chandler


Bolton - Stoke
In my opinion Bolton aren't that bad to sit in 19th position just with 6 points. At home they lost all five in a row, but to be honest 3 loses came against Top 4 teams. It's just about time to start picking points and Stoke is the team, against which they can start doing it.
With great results in Europe League, Stoke's form dipped in Premierleague - in last 6 games they won only once and drawn once.
After long journey to Israel on Thursday I expect them to drop points again - after every European match in midweek they dropped points in Premierleague games so far.
Away form 1-1-3, with just 3 goals scored and 10 conceded.
I'm going with Bolton today.


8 units - Bolton -0.25@2.08 pinnacle


Good luck!


EDIT: FT Fulham 1-3 Tottenham. Pick is won (+8.4 units)
FT Bolton 5-0 Stoke. Pick is won (+8.64 units)

In form Arsenal and goals in Dortmund

After terrible Saturday, I'm posting another two picks from Champions League, which I had left alone for a while. Hopefully my luck will be back.

01/11/2011 Arsenal - Marseille

I was really impressed with Arsenal performance in derby against Chelsea, where they fully deserved win. Scoring 5 goals at Stamford Bridge is something, and confidence should be sky high after such victory. 

Arsenal won 6 games in a row in Champions League at home, they also show good results in Premierleague, Robin Van Persie can't stop scoring - seems like Arsene Wenger got them on track.

Also worth to mention, that Arsenal haven't lost in last 24 home matches in group stages (winning 20 of them) since 2003!

Marseille are only 9th in french league, wining only 3 matches from 12.

Last mutual match in Marseille was quite dull, with only Aaron Ramsey scoring in extra time and Arsenal taking three valuable points, which took them to the top of the group.

Today Arsenal should win easier.

6 units - Arsenal@1.75 pinnacle

Borussia Dortmund - Olympiakos

Another game in the same group. German champions so far are the bottom of the group with only 1 point after 3 matches, but still have minimal chances to progress from the group or at least finish in 3rd position and enter Europa League. 

First match between Dortmund and Olympiakos was open game and already after first 45 minutes were scored 3 goals, and full time finished 3-1 to greeks.

Today I expect another open encounter with game finishing with 3 goals or more.

Both teams have 2 games from 3, which finished with over 2.5 goals, so given odds are good value.

Olympiakos have leaky defence even in Greek championship - after 8 round they managed to keep just one clean sheet. But in 7 matches from 8, they scored 2 goals and more in each game. 

Dortmund in strong german bundesliga scored 15 goals in last 6 games, so I can see big probability of this match finishing with over 2.5 goals.

5 units - over 2.5@1.85 pinnacle

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Arsenal 0-0 Marseille. Pick is lost (-6 units)
FT Dortmund 1-0 Olympiakos. Pick is lost (-5 units)

My top 5 bets on Saturday

Let's have few bets on a Saturday.

First match are starting quite early and it's London derby. Despite Tottenham improving in last few years, probably it's fair to call Chelsea and Arsenal top teams in London in the last decade and they are meeting at Stamford Bridge.

29/10/2011 Chelsea - Arsenal

Chelsea will be without Drogba, who is still suspended after red card with QPR. But Torres should be back after 3 match ban.

Chelsea home form is great with 4 wins from 4.

Arsenal overcame shocking start of new season with humiliating results and now playing better, but mainly depend on Van Persie, who scored 7 goals in the league (rest of the team scored 8).

Gooners are on the longest run in their Premierleague history - 8 away games without win.

Chelsea won 3 from 4 last games at home against Arsenal.

I think we'll see another victory by Blues and 1.7 at Stan James is quite good value.

7 units - Chelsea@1.70 Stan James

Man City - Wolves

Man City are flying high from the start of the season and win over United a week ago just added so much confidence that even second string squad destroyed Wolves 5-2 away from home in Carling Cup game on Wednesday.

City have won five in a row with high scoring in every game - 5:2, 6:1, 2:1, 4:0, 4:1 and basically conceding in every game aswell.

Wolves are on the poor run at the moment, with only 1 draw and 4 losses in last 5 games. 4 games from 5 finished with over 2.5 goals.

Last mutual match at Manchester finished as very high scoring game - 4:3!

Today I will go with another goalfest and over 3.5 goals.

6 units - over 3.5 goals@2.10 Stan James

Norwich City - Blackburn

Norwich fight bravely and managed to bring back home point from Anfield.

In last two games at home Norwich beat Swansea and Sunderland, and today they will meet worst team in the league - Blackburn.

Blackburn lost 6 games from 9 in the league and had 120 minutes in midweek against Newcastle.

I'll take hosts to grab another three points.

5 units - Norwich@2.00 Stan James

Birmingham City - Brighton

One pick from Championship and I'm going with in form Birmingham.

Home side had quite difficult schedule and it will be 4th game in 9 days, but they have big squad and can rotate players. If not that tight schedule I would go with bigger stake.

They have won 6 in a row in all competitions and another win would take them into top 6.

Brighton were promoted to Championship and started very good and were surprise package of the league. But things are not so bright at the moment for seasiders and I don't expect them to take anything from St Andrews.

Brighton's form 0-3-3.

5 units - Birmingham@2.10 Ladbrokes

Nocerina - Sampdoria

Seria B, Italy.

One interesting pick cought my eyes. I'm not big expert or lover of italian football, but this should be a profitable pick.

Newly promoted Nocerina, who took just 2 points from 5 games at home take on relegated and famous Sampdoria. Sampdoria are struggling at home, but won 3 times and had 2 draws away from home and still have Seria A squad.

5 units - Sampdoria -0.25@2.05 pinnacle

Good luck if you follow!


EDIT: FT Chelsea 3-5 Arsenal. Pick is lost (-7 units)
FT Man City 3-1 Wolves. Pick is won (+6.6 units)
FT Norwich 3-3 Blackburn. Pick is lost (-5 units)
FT Birmingham 0-0 Brighton. Pick is lost (-5 units)
FT Nocerina 4-2 Sampdoria. Pick is lost (-5 units)

Not a happy days for United fans

English Sunday

Liverpool disappointed me yesterday. They played really good, but you have to score to win the game. Suarez was everywhere, had 10 shots - most in the league in one match this season. And unbelievable save on 94th minute from Norwich goalkeeper Rudy gave visitors one point.

Well well well, today is another day and another chance to win some money.

I'll have few picks from English football.

23/10/2011 Man United - Man City

Earlier I thought to leave this game alone from betting point of view, but later saw odds offered by Ladbrokes and decided to take small slice.

United are not playing so good at the moment, but still I believe Sir Alex have the magic to organise the team and take required three points from this derby.

United do not have new injury worries, they have great record at Old Trafford -United are unbeaten in their last 25 Premier League home matches, winning the last 19. Last 5 mutual matches in the league at Old Trafford finished as 4 wins for United and 1 - for City.

City are better team than last season, but still I think they are much better playing against weaker teams, but still do not have winning mentality against top teams. That was well seen at Champions League game in Munich against Bayern.

6 units - Man United@2.25 Ladbrokes 

23/10/2011 Bristol City - Birmingham City

Bristol City are bottom of the league. Hosts from last 7 games collected just 1 point. They just appointed new coach and that is the one of reasons why I'm not going for straight visitors win. Another reason - Birmingham just played Europa League game in Brugge on Thursday.

Otherwise Birmingham are in great form lately - they beat Leicester 2-0 and Forest 3-1, also they won in Brugge 2-1.

They are just 18th in the league, but have 4 games in hand and no doubt will climb higher soon.

5 units - Birmingham City 0AH@1.89 188bet

Good luck!

EDIT: FT Man United 1-6 Man City. Pick is lost (-6 units)
FT Bristol City 0-2 Birmingham City. Pick is won (+4.45 units)

Championship goalfest

Early kick of in Peterborough and if goals won't be flying here I don't know where else you should looks for the goals.

22/10/2011 Peterborough - Leeds

Two teams with most over 2.5 goals in the league will meet on Saturday morning.

Peterborough have 5 over 2.5 goals at home and only one under.

Leeds all 5 away games finished with over 2.5 goals.

I'll take small bet for over 3.5 goals in this fixture.

5 units - over 3.5 goals@2.38 Stan James

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Peterborough 2-3 Leeds. Pick is won (+6.9 units)

Liverpool again

Just a quick one today.

22/10/2011 Liverpool - Norwich

Liverpool are fifth in the league and can't afford losing points against teams like Norwich. Liverpool were unlucky not to collect all three points against United last week and today should be up for the win straight from the first minute.

Liverpool midfielder Lucas picked up his fifth booking of the season last weekend and so serves a one-game ban.

Defenders Daniel Agger and Glen Johnson proved their fitness by playing in the midweek friendly against Rangers.

Norwich suprised me so far being in 9th position with 11 points (only 3points less than Liverpool). But to be fair, they picked points against teams like Swansea and Bolton, and lost against Chelsea and Man United by 2 goals margin.

Norwich centre-back Zak Whitbread is back in training following a hamstring injury, but will not be considered.

Steve Morison has recovered from cramp, and Grant Holt, Ritchie De Laet, Andrew Surman and Chris Martin came through a midweek reserve game unscathed.

Anfield is not the place were Norwich should expect to get some points. Liverpool should cover handicap.

7 units - Liverpool -1.5@1.90 pinnacle

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Liverpool 1-1 Norwich. Pick is lost (-7 units)

What else you gonna do on Saturday?

Finally, I'm going to away match! Can't wait for tomorrow morning as me and my mates are going to Pakruojis support our beloved FBK Kaunas. This is only my second away game this season, because most of the year I spent in Bristol and my football team was one of the things I missed most.

15/10/2011 Kruoja - Kaunas

In last 10 Kruoja's games, only three games finished with one team not scoring goal. In last 10 Kaunas games, also only three times Kaunas haven't scored, but conceded in every single one.

Kaunas have very leaky defence and can not keep clean sheet even against worst teams in the league, like Klaipeda and Atlantas. But also they improved in attack lately, scoring 14 goals in last 4 games (to be honest opponents were a little bit weaker, but Kruoja are not world beaters either) and with Razulis upfront and Thompson on the wing, I rate their chances of scoring quite high.

Mutual matches between teams finished as 2-0 and 3-1 wins for the hosts.

I think with written above, odds on both teams to score are quite generous.

5 units - both teams to score @1.85 bwin

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Kruoja 0-4 Kaunas. Pick is lost (-5 units)

Biggest derby in England

Let's leave conspiracy alone and concentrate on real football. And you will not find anything better than Liverpool and Manchester United battle.

15/10/2011 Liverpool - Man United

Once again, teams will meet after two weeks break, but I wouldn't say players are rested, because most of them were on national duty, playing for their national teams.

Liverpool are fifth in the league, just 6 points behind both Manchester teams and have good chance of reducing the gap till 3 points. Anfield is never easy place to visit, even to Man United, who lost last three visits to Liverpool in the league. The last one was especially tough, when Mancunians were outplayed in all components and lost 1-3, and Dirk Kuyt scored hat-trick.

Captain Steven Gerrard is set to start for Liverpool for the first time since 6 March after his slow recovery from a niggling groin problem.

That means they have a fully-fit squad, with Glen Johnson, Martin Kelly, Daniel Agger and Fabio Aurelio all available.

Man United started championship like volcano, destroying everyone and everything on their way. I wouldn't dare to bet against them few weeks ago, but lately they started to have problem or two. Games against Basel, Stoke and Norwich were different to the superb victories against Arsenal or Tottenham. Games were played without Rooney and tomorrow I don't know which Rooney we will see on the pitch - the one who is running riots or the one who hadn't scored a single goal in 6 visits to Anfield and is ready to receive red card in any situation?

They've also wobbled in too many big away games of late, losing six of their last seven league visits to "big four" rivals.

Manchester United captain Nemanja Vidic will be allowed to decide himself if he is ready to return from a calf strain.

Chris Smalling should be fit to play, but Tom Cleverley and Rafael Da Silva are unavailable because of injuries.

I think both teams should be happy with the draw, even the last one came 12 matches ago in the league.

I'll give the edge to Liverpool and take small/medium bet on them.

6 units - Liverpool +0.25@1.80 StanJames

Good luck!

EDIT: FT Liverpool 1-1 Man United. Half stake is won, half returned (+2.4 units)

Lithuanian football magic

Right... My bet was a winner quite early in to the game, but...

I saw the game and it was very "interesting'' from betting point of view. Odds were absolutely opposite to the flow of the game. 

I'm not the one, who likes to blame somebody of fixing or the one who is looking for fixed matches, but I'll give you some numbers. Just numbers.

Before the game odds were 2.60 3.20 2.60 (something like that). Two equal teams. Before the game overs started to fall down till 1.60 from 1.80

After 30 minutes in the first half, result was still 0-0. Banga played a little bit better, but it was still goalless. Odds on Banga win dropped down to 1.61!!! Even the score was still 0-0, no red cards and not a massive advantage from home team. After 40 minutes still 0-0 and over 2.5 still trading at 1.80!!! Usually in such situation odds should rise till 2.50-3.00.

And surprise surprise, goal is scored on 43rd minute. Just before half time whistle and 1-0 to Banga. 

Second half started steady. Dainava had perfect chance, but instead of giving ball to team mate, Dainava striker shoots himself clumsily into defender and ball is lost. Banga got the ball, quick attack 3 against 3. One Banga player on the right wing and two on the left. All three Dainava defenders suddenly run to the right after one attacker and of course ball is crossed to the left, were two absolutely free Banga players have no trouble scoring second goal.

Two minutes later similar situation, and another easy goal for Banga. I lost my nerves and just switched off channel. Just later I saw, that Dainava scored their goal three minutes later. Three goals in period from 66th minute till 72nd. Not usual, eh?

HT/FT, home win, over 2.5 and over 3.5, both teams to score - you name it. All picks - Spot On:) Sadly those picks are a little bit to late for my readers... Oh well, can't have it all. Let's be happy about one winning pick.
But I should be careful with Lithuanian picks, it's the end of football season and those things will happen once again. I'm pretty sure.

On Saturday were is another interesting game in Lithuanian A League. I'm not saying it will have the same scenario, but some numbers looks interesting.

15/10/2011 FC Klaipeda - Mazeikiai

Klaipeda are absolutely awful, they lost 17 matches in a row. I saw their last game against Kaunas, they lost away 1-5 and they were just terrible. They should have been playing in 3rd division, not A league.

Mazeikiai - are safe from relegation worries, they are 9th in the league. 

One thing both team has in common - money. Or to be precise - absence of money. They don't have money at all. Klaipeda are not paid for couple of months, and Mazeikiai even refused to travel to Alytus for the game three weeks ago, and were given technical loss 0-3.

Odds on Klaipeda win started to fall from 7.00 till 5.25 at bwin and from 6.79 till 5.08 at Titanbet. Coincidence? Maybe. Would you bet on team who lost 17 in a row? Don't think so...

But I decided to make few small bets. Don't go over the top, if you follow my picks, but few quid won't make any harm at tasty odds.

2 units - Klaipeda AH0@5.50 bet365

2 units - over 3.5@2.50 bwin

Good luck! And remember - it's up to you to decide which bets to take.


EDIT: FT Klaipeda 0-2 Mazeikiai. Picks are lost (-4 units).
Even Mazeikiai received red card on 18th minute, Klaipeda was useless and couldn't score.

Goals!

Finally national championships are back and I'm back with new colours on the blog. I hope winning picks will follow changes on the blog.

It's always difficult to know how teams will react after two weeks break, but I think today we'll see some goals in Lithuanian league. Match starts 16.30 UK time.

14/10/2011 Banga - Dainava

Banga had high hopes before the season and with a good coach I expected them to be in top 6. So far they are 8th, but difference from 5th are only 6 points. And at home they should try to grab 3 points.

Last 5 games were very difficult for Banga. Only 1 point and 1 goal scored. But opposition were all top 5 teams in the league, fighting for the European Cups spots, so you can't look just at statistics.

Dainava are joint 3-4th scoring team in the league with 49 goals, but also conceded 45, which is only 4th from the bottom. 

59% of all their games finished as overs. Last 4 games from 5 - also overs.

Dainava was surprise package of the season. They are 5th at the moment, higher than anyone expected before season. Today they meet Banga, another midtable team, and Dainava will have no fear and should play their open game once more.

Mutual matches this season were won by visitors 4-2 and 2-1.

Odds on overs are falling down from 1.8 to 1.6 at bet365, but you can get 1.81 at betsafe or 1.75 at bwin, which is still good value in my opinion.

Small bet on over 2.5 is my choice today.

5 units - over 2.5@1.81 betsafe

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Banga 3-1 Dainava. Pick is won (+4.05 units)

Last round of Euro2012 qualifiers

Today the last matches will be played in groups. Winners of the groups can start packing their bags for summer championship which will be held in Poland and Ukraine, runners up still have two games, which decide who will be another 4 teams qualifying for the Euro 2012.

I said earlier I'm not big fan of national teams football betting, but one pick took my attention and I will take with small stake.

11/10/2011 Hungary - Finland

This pick will be based purely following teams statistics.

Hungary are in third position, behind Holland and Sweden, and can not climb any higher. They had good run of five victories in a row, but that was a little too late in case of overtaking Sweden.

Hungarians have 7 overs and 2 unders, goals 22-14, average 4 goals per game.

The last game at home shouldn't stop them from scoring, especially with recovering injured duo Zoltan Gera and Balazs Dzsudzsak included in the squad.

Finland are 4th in the group with 9 points. They have 6 overs and 3 unders, goals 16-16, average 3.55 goals per game.

Reverse game in Finland finished 2-1 for the Hungarians, with Dzsudzsak scoring 94th minute winner.

Odds are falling down on unders, but I can't see the point why this game should finish as low scoring game. Both teams will feel no pressure as everything is already decided in the group. More likely hosts will play for the 6th consecutive win and in front of their supporters will try to do their best. On the other hand Finns were quite good few days ago against Sweden and definitely have chances to score.

5 units - over 2.5@1.93 pinnacle


Good luck!


EDIT: FT Hungary 0-0 Finland. Pick is lost (-5 units)

Pretty quiet at the moment...

National teams are getting ready for the final battle and spots in Euro 2012, so we will have almost two weeks break in national leagues. I'm not very interested in national teams so probably won't take any bets for a while, but who knows, maybe something will stand out from all the games.

So far, enjoy some music and do not rush to take any bets, take some time off.

Gorillas in Bristol

Just a post for fun and to put some smile on your face - it's Friday:) 
61 Gorilla had occupied Bristol for all summer, celebrating 175 years of Bristol Zoo.

Last week most of them were sold by auction, and all funds went to charity. Both football clubs had their Gorillas as well - Alfred was situated outside Bristol City's FC Megastore for ten weeks and was sold for £7,000. His rival - Irene from Bristol Rovers was sold for £6,000.

Speaking with dose of humor, bad omens are sold and luck will return to Bristol teams now. So far Bristol City is 23rd from 24 in Championship and Rovers relegated last season are only 12th in League 2...

Take your bets on Bristol teams, gentelmen:)

Derby in Liverpool

Early match on Saturday starts Premierleague weekend and you wouldn't ask for more - derby in Liverpool!

Reds are visiting Goodison Park and try to grab three points.

01/10/2011 Everton - Liverpool

Everton still haven't find their game and were powerless against Man City. Of course Liverpool isn't so strong like City and match will be played in Everton's fortress, but I still  rate Liverpool as one of top 5 teams in the league.

Tim Cahill is only doubt for Everton.

Last 4 games in Goodison between rivals finished with 3 wins for Liverpool and 1 win for Everton. Overall Everton have won just one of their last nine Premier League encounters with Liverpool - a 2-0 victory at Goodison Park last season.

Liverpool hadn't started season to my expectations. They were really good against Bolton, but later followed two lost matches at Stoke 0-1 and at White Hart Lane 0-4, which saw two Liverpool players sent off. Last week Liverpool finally took three points against Wolves.

Steven Gerrard is likely to be on Liverpool's bench, but Daniel Agger is set to miss out despite returning to training after suffering a broken rib.

I still believe in King's Kenny magic and expect, Liverpool to win the game. Of course draw is not out of the question and I will take 0AH with nice odds.

8 units - Liverpool 0AH@1.80 Bluesquare

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Everton 0-2 Liverpool. Pick is won (+6.4 units)

September statistics

Third month is over on my blog and here comes the results.

Last two losing picks from Champions League were real disaster and ate 13 profitable units. But still I would take them again. It wasn't bad picks, just picked on the wrong day...

In September I had few weeks off because of holidays and had only 8 picks - 4 winners and 4 losers. Thanks to unit management, winners were 7-8 units picks and most losers were 6 pointers and I managed to finish month with +2.85 units profit. Not that I am very excited and proud about, but still profit is a profit.

As I mentioned earlier this blog is not paid services or have any intention to be one day. I just have wish to share my knowledge with others and it's only your choice to take some bets or not. You might me lucky and take only winners:)

Below I will give you some statistics which might help you to decide which picks you should trust and which leave alone (basically I'm going to leave European cups myself, as stats won't lie).

In three month time I had 46 bets - 21 winner, 23 losers and 2 pushes. Some  losers were only half stakes.

July +18.9 units

August -15.2 units

September +2.85 units

-------------------------------

Total: +6.55 units, yield 2.28%

My best and worst leagues:

English leagues +34.2 units (8W, 3L)

Lithuanian league +12.82 units (7W, 8L - most losers were small bets or value bets)

Friendlies +12.11 units (2W)

......................

Champions League -22.62 units (4W, 6L)

Europa League -21 unit (3L)

As you see, all profit was wasted on European Cups and I will give it a miss for a while. I will concentrate on English and Lithuanian (which unfortunately will be over in 1.5 month) football. Also will pay more attention to Spanish and Scottish leagues, should be some money hiding there.

Spot On Treble was not a profitable strategy so far and I might give few more tries. If I'm not going to hit a winner I'll stop. At least I was expecting to win 1 treble from 5, but so far all five trebles were lost. Most of them had two winners from three and that's really annoying. Can't see the point going on, I would rather have cold nice pint myself, than give it to bookies:)

Another weekend is starting soon or already started. Be careful with the teams, who played in European Cups in midweek - I see the coincidence that usually most teams are losing points.

I'll try to post few picks for Saturday and Sunday, but can't promise, because I     have some travelling to do.

Best of luck with your picks! 

Can you do this?

Scottish punter from Edinburgh placed a four-fold accumulator bet on last weekend’s William Hill Scottish Cup and landed a whopping £101,200!!!

The punter’s £100 accumulator resulted in the biggest ever individual payout in William Hill Scottish Cup history after all four teams won their first round ties by four goals or more. 

£100 Accumulator

Cove Rangers to beat Glasgow University by 4 or more goals @ 5.0

Huntly to beat Newton Stewart by 4 or more goals @ 5.50

Culter to beat Burntisland Shipyard by 4 or more goals @ 4.60

Wick Academy to beat Coldstream by 4 or more goals @ 8.0

Total Return: £101,200

Well done!

Shakhtar - my pick on Wednesday

Can't remember the time I was so angry after losing pick - yesterday Man City drove me mad. And well done, to the people who put thousands on Bayern. Until first goal I saw two equal teams on the pitch, but after first Bayern goal, it was only one team - Germans. One way traffic and not a single chance for millionaires from Manchester. City reminded me last season - they playing well only after score first, but do not have balls after concede...

But it's time to move on. Another pick from Champions League.

28/09/2011 Shakhtar - APOEL

Ukrainians are very experienced in Champions League, playing year in, year out. And the only aim this year - to finish in top two and go to next phase.

First match in Porto was unsuccessful with two red cards and loss 1-2. There is no way back, and only win will satisfy ukrainians. They have to pick up points at home.

Unfortunately today they will have to play without suspended Chygrynskyj and Rakitskyj. Fernandinho is injured.

Shakhtar have impresive record at home. Only loss against Barcelona last season in quarterfinal ended 15 matches unbeaten run at home, which resulted in 11 victories.

APOEL is usually very good at home, last round they beat Zenit 2-1. Russians underestimated cypriots (or to be precise collection of brasilians, portuguese and other internationals) and paid the price. 

They have all squad without injuries.

Odds are moving up for Shakhtar and I think it's worth taking now. For straight Shakhtar win you can get up to 1.63@pinnacle, but I will go with bigger payout as expect them to win by two goals.

6 units - Shakhtar -0.75@1.82 SBOBET

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Shakhtar 1-1 APOEL. Pick is lost (-6 units)

Bayern - Man City update

Interesting things happened through the night.

Man City yesterday in the evening were available@4.11 (pinnacle). Today you can take some slice @5.10!!!

I am not a big expert in German football, but have been watching Bayern in Europe for ages and have to say they are top team (unless you don't know yourself:) and are showing good results year in, year out in Champions League. Today I found interesting article in one of my favorite football portals goal.com , which might be interesting for you. What a game we are awaiting! €319m euros from Bayern against €377m euros from Man City! Robben, Ribery, Gomez, Silva, Aguero, Nasri - you name it!

Amount of money in top European clubs are insane! And what a difference with my beloved FBK Kaunas , who probably have less than €1m budget. That's why Kaunas is watched by 300 faithful and big boys - by 300 millions...

I'm not gonna take any more bets from this match. Just stay with my bet - both team to score.

But in my opinion Man City are underpriced and taking them with 0AH@3.50 at Bluesquare might be good choice. It's up to you.

Good luck whatever you decide and enjoy the football tonight!

Champions League on Tuesday

Champions League second round starts on Tuesday with plenty of interesting and entertaining games. 

I'll have a look at couple of them and make some notes which might be useful to you, but probably will take just one bet. Rest of the matches are for watching with nice cold pint.

27/09/2011 Manchester United - Basel

High flying Manchester team lost first points in Premierleague against Stoke. Last week's Champions League game against Benfica produced only a draw. But on the other hand Benfica is very strong team, so maybe one point away is not so bad result.

I watched game against Stoke with one eye, and probably it was one of the worst games I've seen this season for United. I would suggest once more that Man United with Rooney and without him are two different teams. Bad news for tomorrow - Rooney won't be playing again. Hernandez is also out, together with Evans, Smalling, Cleverley, Vidic and Rafael. 

Basel's five match wining streak ended in Thun on Saturday with a draw 1-1.

Xherdan Shaqiri and Benjamin Huggel are suspended (both played all match against Thun), and Valentin Stocker, Gilles Yapi and Genséric Kusunga are all injured, yet Scott Chipperfield is available after recovering from a torn muscle that ruled him out of the start of the season. 

Swiss champions are coming to England being top of the group after beating Otelul 2-1. By the reports it was boring game between two bad teams. I can't confirm that, but would agree it is big difference between Man United and Basel and bookies set asian handicap at -1.75 and it's too big for my liking.

If you will be watching game I would suggest to take Man United at -1.5 if goal is not scored within first 15-20 minutes.

Teams already met once in Champions League in 2003, match at Old Trafford finished 1-1.

Another interesting match will be played in Romania.

27/09/2011 Otelul - Benfica

Romanian side are in quite poor form lately. Last weekend they couldn't beat  newly promoted Mioveni team at home, game finished as scoreless draw. In local league Otelul have only 3 wins after 8 games and are only 9th.

Another negative for home side - the game will played in huge Bucharest stadium (few hundred kilometers away from Galati) and most likely will be half full, mostly with neutral romanians.

Benfica is one of the teams I really fancy and expect to go till quarterfinals at least. Watched them against Twente and Trabzonspor and they were brilliant.

Draw against Man United (shots on target 7 against 2) and draw away in Porto 2-2 extended their unbeaten run to 11 games.

If the game would be played in Lisboa I would take them with no doubts with -1.5AH. But Benfica is not so good on their travels - in qualifying rounds they drawn both games away. But on the other hand they had opportunity to achieve required result at home. Now is group phase and every point is vital for quick access to second phase as soon as possible. 

Bookies know that and odds are really fair and too low for taking. My choice - wait 15-20 minutes and see how the game flows. I would take small bet on Benfica once I can get 1.85 or more.

And finally the game I will be watching:

27/09/2011 Bayern - Man City

Probably main match on Tuesday. Germans with huge experience in Champions League and english team with plenty of talent.

Bayern claimed their ninth successive win in all competitions on Saturday against Bayern Leverkusen 3-0.

Coach Heynckes confirmed that Boateng, who joined Bayern from City this summer, would start on Tuesday. Arjen Robben, Mario Gomez, Daniel Van Buyten and Luiz Gustavo - all returned to action against Leverkusen. Ivica Olić  and Breno remain sidelined, though, and Holger Badstuber is a doubt with flu.

Manchester City can't compare to Munich side on experience level in such matches, but with all players they have win for germans is not on the cards in my opinion.

Aguero and Dzeko are scoring for fun. Tevez still waiting for his chance and even Balotelli scored in win against Everton few days ago (though he won't play because of suspension).

With all striking force from both teams I expect at least one goal from each team and will take both teams to score as my main bet today.

Pinnacle are offering massive 4.11 for Manchester City to win, which represents value.

7 units - both teams to score@1.73 bet365

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Bayern 2-0 Man City. Pick is lost (-7 units)