My top 5 bets on Saturday

Let's have few bets on a Saturday.

First match are starting quite early and it's London derby. Despite Tottenham improving in last few years, probably it's fair to call Chelsea and Arsenal top teams in London in the last decade and they are meeting at Stamford Bridge.

29/10/2011 Chelsea - Arsenal

Chelsea will be without Drogba, who is still suspended after red card with QPR. But Torres should be back after 3 match ban.

Chelsea home form is great with 4 wins from 4.

Arsenal overcame shocking start of new season with humiliating results and now playing better, but mainly depend on Van Persie, who scored 7 goals in the league (rest of the team scored 8).

Gooners are on the longest run in their Premierleague history - 8 away games without win.

Chelsea won 3 from 4 last games at home against Arsenal.

I think we'll see another victory by Blues and 1.7 at Stan James is quite good value.

7 units - Chelsea@1.70 Stan James

Man City - Wolves

Man City are flying high from the start of the season and win over United a week ago just added so much confidence that even second string squad destroyed Wolves 5-2 away from home in Carling Cup game on Wednesday.

City have won five in a row with high scoring in every game - 5:2, 6:1, 2:1, 4:0, 4:1 and basically conceding in every game aswell.

Wolves are on the poor run at the moment, with only 1 draw and 4 losses in last 5 games. 4 games from 5 finished with over 2.5 goals.

Last mutual match at Manchester finished as very high scoring game - 4:3!

Today I will go with another goalfest and over 3.5 goals.

6 units - over 3.5 goals@2.10 Stan James

Norwich City - Blackburn

Norwich fight bravely and managed to bring back home point from Anfield.

In last two games at home Norwich beat Swansea and Sunderland, and today they will meet worst team in the league - Blackburn.

Blackburn lost 6 games from 9 in the league and had 120 minutes in midweek against Newcastle.

I'll take hosts to grab another three points.

5 units - Norwich@2.00 Stan James

Birmingham City - Brighton

One pick from Championship and I'm going with in form Birmingham.

Home side had quite difficult schedule and it will be 4th game in 9 days, but they have big squad and can rotate players. If not that tight schedule I would go with bigger stake.

They have won 6 in a row in all competitions and another win would take them into top 6.

Brighton were promoted to Championship and started very good and were surprise package of the league. But things are not so bright at the moment for seasiders and I don't expect them to take anything from St Andrews.

Brighton's form 0-3-3.

5 units - Birmingham@2.10 Ladbrokes

Nocerina - Sampdoria

Seria B, Italy.

One interesting pick cought my eyes. I'm not big expert or lover of italian football, but this should be a profitable pick.

Newly promoted Nocerina, who took just 2 points from 5 games at home take on relegated and famous Sampdoria. Sampdoria are struggling at home, but won 3 times and had 2 draws away from home and still have Seria A squad.

5 units - Sampdoria -0.25@2.05 pinnacle

Good luck if you follow!


EDIT: FT Chelsea 3-5 Arsenal. Pick is lost (-7 units)
FT Man City 3-1 Wolves. Pick is won (+6.6 units)
FT Norwich 3-3 Blackburn. Pick is lost (-5 units)
FT Birmingham 0-0 Brighton. Pick is lost (-5 units)
FT Nocerina 4-2 Sampdoria. Pick is lost (-5 units)

Not a happy days for United fans

English Sunday

Liverpool disappointed me yesterday. They played really good, but you have to score to win the game. Suarez was everywhere, had 10 shots - most in the league in one match this season. And unbelievable save on 94th minute from Norwich goalkeeper Rudy gave visitors one point.

Well well well, today is another day and another chance to win some money.

I'll have few picks from English football.

23/10/2011 Man United - Man City

Earlier I thought to leave this game alone from betting point of view, but later saw odds offered by Ladbrokes and decided to take small slice.

United are not playing so good at the moment, but still I believe Sir Alex have the magic to organise the team and take required three points from this derby.

United do not have new injury worries, they have great record at Old Trafford -United are unbeaten in their last 25 Premier League home matches, winning the last 19. Last 5 mutual matches in the league at Old Trafford finished as 4 wins for United and 1 - for City.

City are better team than last season, but still I think they are much better playing against weaker teams, but still do not have winning mentality against top teams. That was well seen at Champions League game in Munich against Bayern.

6 units - Man United@2.25 Ladbrokes 

23/10/2011 Bristol City - Birmingham City

Bristol City are bottom of the league. Hosts from last 7 games collected just 1 point. They just appointed new coach and that is the one of reasons why I'm not going for straight visitors win. Another reason - Birmingham just played Europa League game in Brugge on Thursday.

Otherwise Birmingham are in great form lately - they beat Leicester 2-0 and Forest 3-1, also they won in Brugge 2-1.

They are just 18th in the league, but have 4 games in hand and no doubt will climb higher soon.

5 units - Birmingham City 0AH@1.89 188bet

Good luck!

EDIT: FT Man United 1-6 Man City. Pick is lost (-6 units)
FT Bristol City 0-2 Birmingham City. Pick is won (+4.45 units)

Championship goalfest

Early kick of in Peterborough and if goals won't be flying here I don't know where else you should looks for the goals.

22/10/2011 Peterborough - Leeds

Two teams with most over 2.5 goals in the league will meet on Saturday morning.

Peterborough have 5 over 2.5 goals at home and only one under.

Leeds all 5 away games finished with over 2.5 goals.

I'll take small bet for over 3.5 goals in this fixture.

5 units - over 3.5 goals@2.38 Stan James

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Peterborough 2-3 Leeds. Pick is won (+6.9 units)

Liverpool again

Just a quick one today.

22/10/2011 Liverpool - Norwich

Liverpool are fifth in the league and can't afford losing points against teams like Norwich. Liverpool were unlucky not to collect all three points against United last week and today should be up for the win straight from the first minute.

Liverpool midfielder Lucas picked up his fifth booking of the season last weekend and so serves a one-game ban.

Defenders Daniel Agger and Glen Johnson proved their fitness by playing in the midweek friendly against Rangers.

Norwich suprised me so far being in 9th position with 11 points (only 3points less than Liverpool). But to be fair, they picked points against teams like Swansea and Bolton, and lost against Chelsea and Man United by 2 goals margin.

Norwich centre-back Zak Whitbread is back in training following a hamstring injury, but will not be considered.

Steve Morison has recovered from cramp, and Grant Holt, Ritchie De Laet, Andrew Surman and Chris Martin came through a midweek reserve game unscathed.

Anfield is not the place were Norwich should expect to get some points. Liverpool should cover handicap.

7 units - Liverpool -1.5@1.90 pinnacle

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Liverpool 1-1 Norwich. Pick is lost (-7 units)

What else you gonna do on Saturday?

Finally, I'm going to away match! Can't wait for tomorrow morning as me and my mates are going to Pakruojis support our beloved FBK Kaunas. This is only my second away game this season, because most of the year I spent in Bristol and my football team was one of the things I missed most.

15/10/2011 Kruoja - Kaunas

In last 10 Kruoja's games, only three games finished with one team not scoring goal. In last 10 Kaunas games, also only three times Kaunas haven't scored, but conceded in every single one.

Kaunas have very leaky defence and can not keep clean sheet even against worst teams in the league, like Klaipeda and Atlantas. But also they improved in attack lately, scoring 14 goals in last 4 games (to be honest opponents were a little bit weaker, but Kruoja are not world beaters either) and with Razulis upfront and Thompson on the wing, I rate their chances of scoring quite high.

Mutual matches between teams finished as 2-0 and 3-1 wins for the hosts.

I think with written above, odds on both teams to score are quite generous.

5 units - both teams to score @1.85 bwin

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Kruoja 0-4 Kaunas. Pick is lost (-5 units)

Biggest derby in England

Let's leave conspiracy alone and concentrate on real football. And you will not find anything better than Liverpool and Manchester United battle.

15/10/2011 Liverpool - Man United

Once again, teams will meet after two weeks break, but I wouldn't say players are rested, because most of them were on national duty, playing for their national teams.

Liverpool are fifth in the league, just 6 points behind both Manchester teams and have good chance of reducing the gap till 3 points. Anfield is never easy place to visit, even to Man United, who lost last three visits to Liverpool in the league. The last one was especially tough, when Mancunians were outplayed in all components and lost 1-3, and Dirk Kuyt scored hat-trick.

Captain Steven Gerrard is set to start for Liverpool for the first time since 6 March after his slow recovery from a niggling groin problem.

That means they have a fully-fit squad, with Glen Johnson, Martin Kelly, Daniel Agger and Fabio Aurelio all available.

Man United started championship like volcano, destroying everyone and everything on their way. I wouldn't dare to bet against them few weeks ago, but lately they started to have problem or two. Games against Basel, Stoke and Norwich were different to the superb victories against Arsenal or Tottenham. Games were played without Rooney and tomorrow I don't know which Rooney we will see on the pitch - the one who is running riots or the one who hadn't scored a single goal in 6 visits to Anfield and is ready to receive red card in any situation?

They've also wobbled in too many big away games of late, losing six of their last seven league visits to "big four" rivals.

Manchester United captain Nemanja Vidic will be allowed to decide himself if he is ready to return from a calf strain.

Chris Smalling should be fit to play, but Tom Cleverley and Rafael Da Silva are unavailable because of injuries.

I think both teams should be happy with the draw, even the last one came 12 matches ago in the league.

I'll give the edge to Liverpool and take small/medium bet on them.

6 units - Liverpool +0.25@1.80 StanJames

Good luck!

EDIT: FT Liverpool 1-1 Man United. Half stake is won, half returned (+2.4 units)

Lithuanian football magic

Right... My bet was a winner quite early in to the game, but...

I saw the game and it was very "interesting'' from betting point of view. Odds were absolutely opposite to the flow of the game. 

I'm not the one, who likes to blame somebody of fixing or the one who is looking for fixed matches, but I'll give you some numbers. Just numbers.

Before the game odds were 2.60 3.20 2.60 (something like that). Two equal teams. Before the game overs started to fall down till 1.60 from 1.80

After 30 minutes in the first half, result was still 0-0. Banga played a little bit better, but it was still goalless. Odds on Banga win dropped down to 1.61!!! Even the score was still 0-0, no red cards and not a massive advantage from home team. After 40 minutes still 0-0 and over 2.5 still trading at 1.80!!! Usually in such situation odds should rise till 2.50-3.00.

And surprise surprise, goal is scored on 43rd minute. Just before half time whistle and 1-0 to Banga. 

Second half started steady. Dainava had perfect chance, but instead of giving ball to team mate, Dainava striker shoots himself clumsily into defender and ball is lost. Banga got the ball, quick attack 3 against 3. One Banga player on the right wing and two on the left. All three Dainava defenders suddenly run to the right after one attacker and of course ball is crossed to the left, were two absolutely free Banga players have no trouble scoring second goal.

Two minutes later similar situation, and another easy goal for Banga. I lost my nerves and just switched off channel. Just later I saw, that Dainava scored their goal three minutes later. Three goals in period from 66th minute till 72nd. Not usual, eh?

HT/FT, home win, over 2.5 and over 3.5, both teams to score - you name it. All picks - Spot On:) Sadly those picks are a little bit to late for my readers... Oh well, can't have it all. Let's be happy about one winning pick.
But I should be careful with Lithuanian picks, it's the end of football season and those things will happen once again. I'm pretty sure.

On Saturday were is another interesting game in Lithuanian A League. I'm not saying it will have the same scenario, but some numbers looks interesting.

15/10/2011 FC Klaipeda - Mazeikiai

Klaipeda are absolutely awful, they lost 17 matches in a row. I saw their last game against Kaunas, they lost away 1-5 and they were just terrible. They should have been playing in 3rd division, not A league.

Mazeikiai - are safe from relegation worries, they are 9th in the league. 

One thing both team has in common - money. Or to be precise - absence of money. They don't have money at all. Klaipeda are not paid for couple of months, and Mazeikiai even refused to travel to Alytus for the game three weeks ago, and were given technical loss 0-3.

Odds on Klaipeda win started to fall from 7.00 till 5.25 at bwin and from 6.79 till 5.08 at Titanbet. Coincidence? Maybe. Would you bet on team who lost 17 in a row? Don't think so...

But I decided to make few small bets. Don't go over the top, if you follow my picks, but few quid won't make any harm at tasty odds.

2 units - Klaipeda AH0@5.50 bet365

2 units - over 3.5@2.50 bwin

Good luck! And remember - it's up to you to decide which bets to take.


EDIT: FT Klaipeda 0-2 Mazeikiai. Picks are lost (-4 units).
Even Mazeikiai received red card on 18th minute, Klaipeda was useless and couldn't score.

Goals!

Finally national championships are back and I'm back with new colours on the blog. I hope winning picks will follow changes on the blog.

It's always difficult to know how teams will react after two weeks break, but I think today we'll see some goals in Lithuanian league. Match starts 16.30 UK time.

14/10/2011 Banga - Dainava

Banga had high hopes before the season and with a good coach I expected them to be in top 6. So far they are 8th, but difference from 5th are only 6 points. And at home they should try to grab 3 points.

Last 5 games were very difficult for Banga. Only 1 point and 1 goal scored. But opposition were all top 5 teams in the league, fighting for the European Cups spots, so you can't look just at statistics.

Dainava are joint 3-4th scoring team in the league with 49 goals, but also conceded 45, which is only 4th from the bottom. 

59% of all their games finished as overs. Last 4 games from 5 - also overs.

Dainava was surprise package of the season. They are 5th at the moment, higher than anyone expected before season. Today they meet Banga, another midtable team, and Dainava will have no fear and should play their open game once more.

Mutual matches this season were won by visitors 4-2 and 2-1.

Odds on overs are falling down from 1.8 to 1.6 at bet365, but you can get 1.81 at betsafe or 1.75 at bwin, which is still good value in my opinion.

Small bet on over 2.5 is my choice today.

5 units - over 2.5@1.81 betsafe

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Banga 3-1 Dainava. Pick is won (+4.05 units)

Last round of Euro2012 qualifiers

Today the last matches will be played in groups. Winners of the groups can start packing their bags for summer championship which will be held in Poland and Ukraine, runners up still have two games, which decide who will be another 4 teams qualifying for the Euro 2012.

I said earlier I'm not big fan of national teams football betting, but one pick took my attention and I will take with small stake.

11/10/2011 Hungary - Finland

This pick will be based purely following teams statistics.

Hungary are in third position, behind Holland and Sweden, and can not climb any higher. They had good run of five victories in a row, but that was a little too late in case of overtaking Sweden.

Hungarians have 7 overs and 2 unders, goals 22-14, average 4 goals per game.

The last game at home shouldn't stop them from scoring, especially with recovering injured duo Zoltan Gera and Balazs Dzsudzsak included in the squad.

Finland are 4th in the group with 9 points. They have 6 overs and 3 unders, goals 16-16, average 3.55 goals per game.

Reverse game in Finland finished 2-1 for the Hungarians, with Dzsudzsak scoring 94th minute winner.

Odds are falling down on unders, but I can't see the point why this game should finish as low scoring game. Both teams will feel no pressure as everything is already decided in the group. More likely hosts will play for the 6th consecutive win and in front of their supporters will try to do their best. On the other hand Finns were quite good few days ago against Sweden and definitely have chances to score.

5 units - over 2.5@1.93 pinnacle


Good luck!


EDIT: FT Hungary 0-0 Finland. Pick is lost (-5 units)

Pretty quiet at the moment...

National teams are getting ready for the final battle and spots in Euro 2012, so we will have almost two weeks break in national leagues. I'm not very interested in national teams so probably won't take any bets for a while, but who knows, maybe something will stand out from all the games.

So far, enjoy some music and do not rush to take any bets, take some time off.