Will Newcastle stay unbeaten?

Couple of weeks without English football flew past and now let's go back to action. We have few interesting games, but after the break I'll just have two small bets, even Norwich - Arsenal overs looks very attractive.

19/11/2011 Manchester City - Newcastle

Despite reporting an annual loss of £194.9m for 2010-11, the biggest in English football history, City are still top of the league, leading by 5 points.

But today I decided to go against them. Of course they still have great squad, with only Nasri being sidelined. Aguero should be fit to play - his injury wasn't so bad as expected.

But 16 of City's stars were away for international duty. Edin Dzeko and Stefan Savic had Euro 2012 play-off heartache. Sergio Aguero and Pablo Zabaleta were involved in South American World Cup qualifiers. Aleksandar Kolorov was sent off playing for Serbia in a friendly in Mexico! The Toure brothers had a to go to South Africa for another friendly and after playing at Wembley, David Silva had 11,000 miles of flying to Costa Rica and back! Those journeys should have impact on their form.

Newcastle are surprise package of the season so far and they are undefeated in 10 games (the only team with Man City in the league). Also they have the best defence in the league, conceded only 8 goals.

Probably Man City is more likely to win, but I think it will be by one goal only. Or even draw is not out of the question. Today I'll go with visitors on +1.5AH. Odds are really good.

5 units - Newcastle +1.5@2.12 Ladbrokes

Birmingham City - Peterborough

One league down to Championship, to St Andrews - fortress of Birmingham City. 

Once again I'm going with Brummies. 13th position after 13 games, but with 3 games in hand. 3 wins would take them straight to 3rd position.

They really needed a break after tough schedule with Europa League games, english cups and championship matches being played every 2-3 days. After 7 wins in a row, followed 3 matches without a win.

They a still unbeaten at home - 4 wins and 2 draws, scored 8, conceded only 1. Five clean sheets!

Peterborough have one record, no one wants to achieve - they haven't kept a single clean sheet in 16 matches so far. Away record 2-1-5, 11:15. They are coming to Birmingham after 2 losses away in a row to Watford and Southampton. Doesn't look like St Andrews is the right place at the moment to change this sequence.

5 units - Birmingham City@1.86 pinnacle

Good Luck!


EDIT: FT Man City 3-1 Newcastle. Pick is lost (-5 units)
FT Birmingham City 1-1 Peterborough. Pick is lost (-5 units)

Let goals fly in Lisboa

Last time I said, I should leave European football alone, but can't resist one pick. Odds too good to miss - at least I think so now. We'll see tomorrow who was right.

15/11/2011 Portugal - Bosnia

All or nothing - that's the price of this game. Either you are going to Euro2012 or you'll be sitting by TV and watching others play and win trophies.

First match was coutious game, finished 0-0 and not so many chances were created.

Now is return leg and teams have to play, don't think any of them will be happy with 0-0 and extratime or even penalties.

Portuguese side scored in 7 from 8 group matches, at home they scored 13 in 4 games, Ronaldo (5 goals) and Nani (4 goals) being topscorers. Worth to mention, they kept only one clean sheet at home and conceded 8 goals against Cyprus, Denmark and Iceland

Bosnians have historic chance and with 17 goals scored in 10 group matches they are dangerous team. They scored in 8 from 10 group matches. With Edin Dzeko (4 goals), Ibisevic and Pjanic they have players able to score.

Last game in group away in France showed that they are capable of playing and scoring against top european teams and I expect good performance from them tonight.

Odds rised for both teams to score from 2.20 to 2.40 and I will take it with small stakes.

5 units - both teams to score@2.40 bwin

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Portugal 6-2 Bosnia. Pick is won (+7 units)

Lithuanians are in trouble

I decided to take small bet on Slovenia U21, who will challenge Lithuanian team in few hours. Game will be played in Nova Gorica (Slovenia).

11/10/2011 Slovenia U21 - Lithuania U21

I don't know a lot about Slovenian team. First mutual match they won in Lithuania 1-0. After that they won another two games and with 10 points after 5 games are joint first with Sweden, who played only 4 matches. So Slovenians have all the chances to fight for the first position in group.

I know much more about Lithuanian team, who are not the strongest anyway, and today they will miss 7 players from last match, when they finally grabbed first 3 points beating Malta 2-0. Before that they lost 4 matches in a row. 

Missings are important in my opinion, and biggest problems should occure in defence. For this match one 16 years old defender is invited - I never heard about him, even I follow Lithuanian football very close - most likely it's just encouragement for the youngster, coz by no means he is a star at the moment.

Lithuanian football season have finished last week, and most of the players invited were sitting on the bench in their teams, rather than playing. One player worth mentioning is Novikovas from Hearts, but he was injured for the last couple weeks, so his form is not perfect.

I have to give edge for the home team, and expect them to cover handicap. Small sake.

5 units - Slovenia U21 -1.5@1.91 188bet

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Slovenia U21 2-0 Lithuania U21. Pick is won (+4.55 units)

Tottenham and Bolton - my selection for Sunday

06/11/2011 Fulham - Tottenham

Both teams played in midweek in Europa League, Fulham at home beat Wisla 4-1  and Spurs lost away in Russia against Rubin 1-0. The difference between both teams - Fulham fielded main players, Spurs left main players at home, who even didn't travel to Russia.

Fulham surprised me a little bit this season. Usually they are strong mid table team and you can trust them when they are playing at home. But this season they managed just one win from 5 games at Craven Cottage.

Also Fulham have only won two of their last 22 London derbies, one of them came in their most recent attempt at Craven Cottage when they beat QPR 6-0.

Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last seven league matches. Van der Vaart and Adebayor are in great form.
Having lost their opening two league matches, Spurs have won six and drawn one of their last seven, a run that started when Scott Parker made his debut for the club.
Away from home Spurs are 3-1-1 and I don't expect them to lose points today, but will go with safer option.


8 units - Tottenham -0.25@2.05 Victor Chandler


Bolton - Stoke
In my opinion Bolton aren't that bad to sit in 19th position just with 6 points. At home they lost all five in a row, but to be honest 3 loses came against Top 4 teams. It's just about time to start picking points and Stoke is the team, against which they can start doing it.
With great results in Europe League, Stoke's form dipped in Premierleague - in last 6 games they won only once and drawn once.
After long journey to Israel on Thursday I expect them to drop points again - after every European match in midweek they dropped points in Premierleague games so far.
Away form 1-1-3, with just 3 goals scored and 10 conceded.
I'm going with Bolton today.


8 units - Bolton -0.25@2.08 pinnacle


Good luck!


EDIT: FT Fulham 1-3 Tottenham. Pick is won (+8.4 units)
FT Bolton 5-0 Stoke. Pick is won (+8.64 units)

In form Arsenal and goals in Dortmund

After terrible Saturday, I'm posting another two picks from Champions League, which I had left alone for a while. Hopefully my luck will be back.

01/11/2011 Arsenal - Marseille

I was really impressed with Arsenal performance in derby against Chelsea, where they fully deserved win. Scoring 5 goals at Stamford Bridge is something, and confidence should be sky high after such victory. 

Arsenal won 6 games in a row in Champions League at home, they also show good results in Premierleague, Robin Van Persie can't stop scoring - seems like Arsene Wenger got them on track.

Also worth to mention, that Arsenal haven't lost in last 24 home matches in group stages (winning 20 of them) since 2003!

Marseille are only 9th in french league, wining only 3 matches from 12.

Last mutual match in Marseille was quite dull, with only Aaron Ramsey scoring in extra time and Arsenal taking three valuable points, which took them to the top of the group.

Today Arsenal should win easier.

6 units - Arsenal@1.75 pinnacle

Borussia Dortmund - Olympiakos

Another game in the same group. German champions so far are the bottom of the group with only 1 point after 3 matches, but still have minimal chances to progress from the group or at least finish in 3rd position and enter Europa League. 

First match between Dortmund and Olympiakos was open game and already after first 45 minutes were scored 3 goals, and full time finished 3-1 to greeks.

Today I expect another open encounter with game finishing with 3 goals or more.

Both teams have 2 games from 3, which finished with over 2.5 goals, so given odds are good value.

Olympiakos have leaky defence even in Greek championship - after 8 round they managed to keep just one clean sheet. But in 7 matches from 8, they scored 2 goals and more in each game. 

Dortmund in strong german bundesliga scored 15 goals in last 6 games, so I can see big probability of this match finishing with over 2.5 goals.

5 units - over 2.5@1.85 pinnacle

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Arsenal 0-0 Marseille. Pick is lost (-6 units)
FT Dortmund 1-0 Olympiakos. Pick is lost (-5 units)

My top 5 bets on Saturday

Let's have few bets on a Saturday.

First match are starting quite early and it's London derby. Despite Tottenham improving in last few years, probably it's fair to call Chelsea and Arsenal top teams in London in the last decade and they are meeting at Stamford Bridge.

29/10/2011 Chelsea - Arsenal

Chelsea will be without Drogba, who is still suspended after red card with QPR. But Torres should be back after 3 match ban.

Chelsea home form is great with 4 wins from 4.

Arsenal overcame shocking start of new season with humiliating results and now playing better, but mainly depend on Van Persie, who scored 7 goals in the league (rest of the team scored 8).

Gooners are on the longest run in their Premierleague history - 8 away games without win.

Chelsea won 3 from 4 last games at home against Arsenal.

I think we'll see another victory by Blues and 1.7 at Stan James is quite good value.

7 units - Chelsea@1.70 Stan James

Man City - Wolves

Man City are flying high from the start of the season and win over United a week ago just added so much confidence that even second string squad destroyed Wolves 5-2 away from home in Carling Cup game on Wednesday.

City have won five in a row with high scoring in every game - 5:2, 6:1, 2:1, 4:0, 4:1 and basically conceding in every game aswell.

Wolves are on the poor run at the moment, with only 1 draw and 4 losses in last 5 games. 4 games from 5 finished with over 2.5 goals.

Last mutual match at Manchester finished as very high scoring game - 4:3!

Today I will go with another goalfest and over 3.5 goals.

6 units - over 3.5 goals@2.10 Stan James

Norwich City - Blackburn

Norwich fight bravely and managed to bring back home point from Anfield.

In last two games at home Norwich beat Swansea and Sunderland, and today they will meet worst team in the league - Blackburn.

Blackburn lost 6 games from 9 in the league and had 120 minutes in midweek against Newcastle.

I'll take hosts to grab another three points.

5 units - Norwich@2.00 Stan James

Birmingham City - Brighton

One pick from Championship and I'm going with in form Birmingham.

Home side had quite difficult schedule and it will be 4th game in 9 days, but they have big squad and can rotate players. If not that tight schedule I would go with bigger stake.

They have won 6 in a row in all competitions and another win would take them into top 6.

Brighton were promoted to Championship and started very good and were surprise package of the league. But things are not so bright at the moment for seasiders and I don't expect them to take anything from St Andrews.

Brighton's form 0-3-3.

5 units - Birmingham@2.10 Ladbrokes

Nocerina - Sampdoria

Seria B, Italy.

One interesting pick cought my eyes. I'm not big expert or lover of italian football, but this should be a profitable pick.

Newly promoted Nocerina, who took just 2 points from 5 games at home take on relegated and famous Sampdoria. Sampdoria are struggling at home, but won 3 times and had 2 draws away from home and still have Seria A squad.

5 units - Sampdoria -0.25@2.05 pinnacle

Good luck if you follow!


EDIT: FT Chelsea 3-5 Arsenal. Pick is lost (-7 units)
FT Man City 3-1 Wolves. Pick is won (+6.6 units)
FT Norwich 3-3 Blackburn. Pick is lost (-5 units)
FT Birmingham 0-0 Brighton. Pick is lost (-5 units)
FT Nocerina 4-2 Sampdoria. Pick is lost (-5 units)

Not a happy days for United fans

English Sunday

Liverpool disappointed me yesterday. They played really good, but you have to score to win the game. Suarez was everywhere, had 10 shots - most in the league in one match this season. And unbelievable save on 94th minute from Norwich goalkeeper Rudy gave visitors one point.

Well well well, today is another day and another chance to win some money.

I'll have few picks from English football.

23/10/2011 Man United - Man City

Earlier I thought to leave this game alone from betting point of view, but later saw odds offered by Ladbrokes and decided to take small slice.

United are not playing so good at the moment, but still I believe Sir Alex have the magic to organise the team and take required three points from this derby.

United do not have new injury worries, they have great record at Old Trafford -United are unbeaten in their last 25 Premier League home matches, winning the last 19. Last 5 mutual matches in the league at Old Trafford finished as 4 wins for United and 1 - for City.

City are better team than last season, but still I think they are much better playing against weaker teams, but still do not have winning mentality against top teams. That was well seen at Champions League game in Munich against Bayern.

6 units - Man United@2.25 Ladbrokes 

23/10/2011 Bristol City - Birmingham City

Bristol City are bottom of the league. Hosts from last 7 games collected just 1 point. They just appointed new coach and that is the one of reasons why I'm not going for straight visitors win. Another reason - Birmingham just played Europa League game in Brugge on Thursday.

Otherwise Birmingham are in great form lately - they beat Leicester 2-0 and Forest 3-1, also they won in Brugge 2-1.

They are just 18th in the league, but have 4 games in hand and no doubt will climb higher soon.

5 units - Birmingham City 0AH@1.89 188bet

Good luck!

EDIT: FT Man United 1-6 Man City. Pick is lost (-6 units)
FT Bristol City 0-2 Birmingham City. Pick is won (+4.45 units)

Championship goalfest

Early kick of in Peterborough and if goals won't be flying here I don't know where else you should looks for the goals.

22/10/2011 Peterborough - Leeds

Two teams with most over 2.5 goals in the league will meet on Saturday morning.

Peterborough have 5 over 2.5 goals at home and only one under.

Leeds all 5 away games finished with over 2.5 goals.

I'll take small bet for over 3.5 goals in this fixture.

5 units - over 3.5 goals@2.38 Stan James

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Peterborough 2-3 Leeds. Pick is won (+6.9 units)

Liverpool again

Just a quick one today.

22/10/2011 Liverpool - Norwich

Liverpool are fifth in the league and can't afford losing points against teams like Norwich. Liverpool were unlucky not to collect all three points against United last week and today should be up for the win straight from the first minute.

Liverpool midfielder Lucas picked up his fifth booking of the season last weekend and so serves a one-game ban.

Defenders Daniel Agger and Glen Johnson proved their fitness by playing in the midweek friendly against Rangers.

Norwich suprised me so far being in 9th position with 11 points (only 3points less than Liverpool). But to be fair, they picked points against teams like Swansea and Bolton, and lost against Chelsea and Man United by 2 goals margin.

Norwich centre-back Zak Whitbread is back in training following a hamstring injury, but will not be considered.

Steve Morison has recovered from cramp, and Grant Holt, Ritchie De Laet, Andrew Surman and Chris Martin came through a midweek reserve game unscathed.

Anfield is not the place were Norwich should expect to get some points. Liverpool should cover handicap.

7 units - Liverpool -1.5@1.90 pinnacle

Good luck!


EDIT: FT Liverpool 1-1 Norwich. Pick is lost (-7 units)